What’s in the proposed deal that could end the US-Iran conflict?

What’s in the proposed deal that could end the US-Iran conflict?

What s in the proposed deal – Officials from Iran and the United States have hinted at nearing an agreement to transform the temporary ceasefire that ended weeks of hostilities into a more permanent resolution. Both parties are considering a “memorandum of understanding” that outlines a plan to resolve all unresolved disputes, though a formal agreement isn’t anticipated today. The details of this memorandum remain uncertain, but its potential success could mark a turning point in the ongoing standoff between the two nations. With U.S. President Donald Trump facing crucial midterm elections and Iran grappling with economic turmoil, the stakes of this negotiation are high.

Strait of Hormuz and Port Blockade

Recent drafts of the memorandum suggest that the U.S. and Iran may agree to gradually restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage for global oil trade. This would entail allowing commercial vessels to resume operations at pre-war levels within a 30-day window. However, Iranian state media have raised concerns, questioning whether the document will truly resolve the dispute or merely delay further conflict. A key point of contention appears to be the control Iran asserts over the strait, even as it agrees to ease restrictions.

“The strait is already open, but coordination with Iranian relevant authorities must happen to ensure safe transit,” said an Iranian source who spoke to CNN on Sunday.

While the U.S. insists on lifting the blockade of Iranian ports, the agreement may not fully address Iran’s wartime claims over the strategic waterway. The Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Ismaeil Baghaei, emphasized that the strait’s status is a matter between Iran and neighboring coastal countries, particularly Oman. “This is an issue between us and the coastal countries,” he stated. Yet, Iranian media have highlighted that allowing shipping to resume does not equate to surrendering sovereignty over the strait. The country continues to argue it has the right to impose tolls on commercial vessels passing through the passage, a claim that could complicate future agreements.

Nuclear Program and Uranium Stockpiles

Another major element of the proposed deal involves Iran’s nuclear commitments. CNN reported that the agreement includes Iran’s pledge to halt its pursuit of nuclear weapons. This would also mean Iran would agree to enter discussions about reducing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and pausing new enrichment activities. However, Iranian officials have stated that these nuclear negotiations can only commence once a memorandum ending the war is finalized.

“Nuclear issues are not being discussed at this stage,” Baghaei said Saturday.

Despite these assurances, the U.S. has made it clear that Iran must eventually relinquish its uranium reserves, which now exceed 400 kilograms. Much of this stockpile is believed to have been hidden after U.S. strikes in the previous year. The initial memorandum is expected to address these issues only briefly, with the challenge of reconciling the two sides’ positions remaining a critical hurdle for a comprehensive resolution. Trump has previously indicated that a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment would be a acceptable outcome, though the specifics of this plan are still under debate.

Disagreements and Uncertainty

Iranian state media have cast doubt on the likelihood of a final agreement, noting that differences over key clauses of the memorandum persist. The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Sunday that “one or two clauses of the possible memorandum of understanding still linger.” These unresolved points could delay the implementation of the deal or even prevent its ratification. Trump, on the other hand, has expressed confidence in the progress made, describing the negotiations as “largely negotiated.” Nevertheless, he has warned that the U.S. will not finalize the agreement hastily.

“The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed,” Trump stated in a social media post Sunday.

Contradictions have emerged regarding the timeline for lifting the blockade. While Trump claims the strait will be reopened under the memorandum, some Iranian outlets, including those aligned with the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), report that Iran will retain authority over the waterway. This discrepancy highlights the complexity of the negotiations, as both sides seek to balance concessions with strategic interests. The memo’s wording may not fully align with the expectations of either party, creating ambiguity in its interpretation.

Economic Pressures and Strategic Priorities

Iran’s economic challenges have intensified the urgency of a deal. The country’s economy, already strained by international sanctions, faces further difficulties as the conflict drags on. Iranian officials have called for the immediate unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets held in foreign banks, a demand that could be a key condition for their participation in the agreement. Meanwhile, the U.S. seeks to ensure that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are curtailed, framing the conflict as a necessary measure to prevent the development of a nuclear weapon.

The proposed memorandum appears to address immediate concerns while leaving room for future negotiations. However, the success of this plan depends on how effectively both sides can reconcile their diverging priorities. For Iran, the focus is on securing economic relief and maintaining influence over critical regions like the Strait of Hormuz. For the U.S., the emphasis is on ensuring long-term stability and preventing Iran from escalating its nuclear program. Whether this framework can satisfy both sides remains to be seen, as the finalization of the agreement approaches.

Path Forward and Challenges Ahead

While the memorandum of understanding represents a significant step toward peace, it is not expected to resolve all disputes. The document would serve as a foundation for future discussions, particularly on the nuclear program. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency clarified that the agreement does not include commitments to hand over nuclear stockpiles, dismantle facilities, or pledge a complete halt to weapons development. This leaves room for continued debate, as both sides prepare for the next phase of talks.

As the conflict enters a new stage, the memorandum could act as a bridge to a broader, more detailed settlement. However, the success of this initiative hinges on the willingness of both parties to make compromises. The U.S. and Iran must navigate a complex web of issues, from economic sanctions to strategic control of vital waterways, to achieve a lasting resolution. With the clock ticking toward an election and a fragile ceasefire, the outcome of these negotiations will shape the trajectory of the U.S.-Iran relationship for years to come.