Trump’s Gulf allies fear his Iran agreement is a ‘disastrous turning point’

Trump’s Gulf Allies Concerned Over Iran Agreement’s Regional Impact

Trump s Gulf allies fear his Iran – For years, leaders in the Persian Gulf region have regarded their ties with the United States as vital to their national security. Arab Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, have historically seen the partnership as a cornerstone of stability. However, President Donald Trump often emphasized a more pragmatic, transactional approach, framing the relationship as a business deal where the US provides military support in exchange for financial commitments. This perspective became evident in 2018 when Trump remarked during a conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, stating, “King, we’re protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military.” The comment underscored a shift in how Trump perceived the alliance, prioritizing economic interests over long-term geopolitical commitments.

A Major Attack and a Strategic Dilemma

One year after Trump’s remarks, the Gulf faced its most significant security crisis in recent memory. In 2019, a series of strikes on Saudi oil facilities disrupted nearly half of the kingdom’s crude output, causing a spike in global oil prices. While the US swiftly attributed the attacks to Iran, Gulf leaders were left questioning the extent of Washington’s resolve to defend them. The incident exposed a tension between the US’s public declarations of support and its willingness to act decisively in the region’s defense. Despite this, the administration’s stance remained firm, with officials insisting that Iran was responsible and that the alliance would prevail.

By the time Trump entered his second term, Gulf nations had become increasingly aware of the potential risks. Their support for the US had been evident in substantial investments in American infrastructure and markets, yet the region’s security concerns remained unaddressed. Recognizing this, Trump chose the Gulf for his first overseas trip as president, a move that highlighted the strategic importance of the area. During his visit to Doha, Qatar, he declared, “We are going to protect this country,” a pledge that aimed to reassure allies but also signaled a focus on immediate threats rather than broader regional stability.

The Iran War and Its Repercussions

Despite Gulf nations’ efforts to prevent a larger conflict, the US launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran in 2020, with Israel as a key ally. This aggressive stance prompted intense retaliation across the Gulf, forcing regional governments to reevaluate their dependence on American security guarantees. The war not only tested the resilience of Gulf states but also revealed their growing apprehension about the US’s commitment to their interests. In the wake of the conflict, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio embarked on a regional tour, tasked with rebuilding trust and reinforcing the administration’s assurances.

During his stop in Kuwait, Rubio emphasized that the US would not compromise its allies in negotiations with Iran. “We will not undermine our Gulf partners in these talks,” he stated, assuring diplomats that the security promises remained intact. However, the sentiment among Gulf leaders was more skeptical. They were not only questioning the US’s reliability but also debating whether the new agreement with Iran would improve or worsen their strategic position. As one analyst noted, “The Iran war represents a pivotal moment for the Gulf’s security framework,” according to Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Alhasan argued that the agreement reflects a broader US retreat from the region, with financial and diplomatic resources flowing to Iran instead of supporting Gulf allies.

“US disengagement from the Gulf and the growing economic ties with Iran are likely to strengthen Tehran’s position in the region,” Alhasan explained. “A bad deal is still better than a full-scale war, but the long-term consequences could be severe.”

Unresolved Concerns and a Fragile Peace

The emerging US-Iran pact, which includes a 14-point peace plan, has failed to fully address the Gulf states’ most pressing fears. While the agreement aims to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it does not tackle the country’s missile program or its network of proxy militant groups, which Gulf leaders consider immediate threats. These unresolved issues have sparked widespread unease, particularly as confidence in the US as a reliable partner has waned. A senior Gulf diplomat told CNN that the conflict had demonstrated Iran’s capability to target the region effectively, raising doubts about the sustainability of the new deal.

One of the most contentious aspects of the agreement is Iran’s role in overseeing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy exports. By granting Tehran formal authority over this critical passage, the pact allows Iranian influence to extend into the Gulf’s maritime trade, potentially compromising the region’s economic and security interests. This development has been met with mixed reactions, as Gulf states weigh the benefits of avoiding war against the risks of increased Iranian leverage.

Rubio’s diplomatic mission includes visits to the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—countries that suffered the brunt of Iranian attacks during the 2020 conflict. These nations, already wary of the agreement’s implications, are now at the forefront of discussions about its long-term impact. In Kuwait, Rubio reiterated the US’s commitment to its allies, stating, “We are not taking any actions that would weaken the security of our partners in this region.” Yet, the challenge remains: can the US prove that its security promises are as strong as they appear?

Legacy of the 2015 Nuclear Deal

The current agreement has its roots in the 2015 Iran nuclear pact, which was widely supported by Gulf nations during the Obama administration. However, their stance shifted dramatically when Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, a move that initially pleased the region. The agreement under Obama had not adequately addressed concerns about Iran’s regional ambitions, and Trump’s decision to abandon it was seen as a rejection of those unresolved issues. Yet, the new deal has not fully resolved those concerns, leading to a new wave of anxiety.

For Gulf leaders, the transition from the Obama to the Trump administration marked a pivotal shift in US policy. While they welcomed Trump’s emphasis on military strength, they also recognized the potential for a more transactional approach. The 2020 war, though a success in military terms, exposed the fragility of this relationship. As the US-Iran pact takes shape, the question is whether the Gulf states will continue to accept Washington’s terms or demand more robust guarantees. The answer may determine the future of the region’s security order and its alignment with US interests.