Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Few ships were leaving in the first place
Iran Claims Strait of Hormuz Closed Again, Maritime Activity Slows
Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz – Iran has once again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sparking concerns over global oil supply chains. While the official statement highlights the strategic waterway’s shutdown, data from the marine intelligence firm Kpler reveals that only 25 vessels passed through the channel on Thursday. This figure, though low, is a continuation of a trend that began before the conflict escalated, with pre-war levels seeing up to 120 oil tankers traverse the strait daily. The ongoing hesitation among shipping companies underscores the persistent unease about the region’s security, despite the waterway’s critical role in international trade.
Analysts Note Persistent Cautious Behavior
Oil analyst Matt Smith pointed out that the reduction in traffic has been gradual, with only single-digit numbers of tankers navigating the strait on Friday. “The decline is more of a slow bleed than a sudden collapse,” Smith said in a CNN interview. “Operators are waiting for the situation to stabilize before committing to full operations.” He stressed that the current levels remain significantly lower than pre-war averages, with no clear sign of a “first mover” restoring confidence in the channel. This cautious stance, Smith explained, reflects broader uncertainties about the stability of the region, even with the recent ceasefire agreement.
Trapped Vessels and Crews: A Lingering Crisis
Since the conflict began, nearly 500 ships—including many oil tankers—have been stranded in the Persian Gulf. As of Thursday, 220 vessels remained in the area, their cargo unable to move due to navigational restrictions. The situation has left around 20,000 crew members stuck, unable to return to their home countries. Ben Bailey of the Mission to Seafarers charity emphasized the emotional toll on these workers, stating, “Even as hope grows, the fear of being stuck again lingers.”
“It’s not just about the physical blockage—it’s the psychological impact on crews who can’t see the end in sight.” – Ben Bailey, Mission to Seafarers
Security remains a primary concern for ship operators. Jakob Larsen, chief safety officer at BIMCO, noted that the central portion of the strait is mined and currently impassable. “The ceasefire agreement has eased some fears, but the security environment is still unpredictable,” Larsen added. He highlighted that only the inshore zones near Oman and Iran are reported to be mine-free, though these areas are not entirely risk-free. Congestion and delays further complicate the situation, with vessels lingering in the Gulf as they wait for safe passage.
Insurance and Practical Challenges Slow Recovery
Maritime insurers have played a key role in the current crisis, with Lloyds of London and others pulling coverage for war risks early in the conflict. This has led to a reluctance among ship owners to resume operations, even as the Strait of Hormuz appears to be reopening. Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst, remarked, “The closure wasn’t just a result of Iran’s actions—it was also driven by insurers’ hesitancy.”
Practical obstacles also delay progress. Prolonged anchoring has caused maintenance issues, such as barnacle accumulation, requiring additional time to prepare vessels for departure. Ship operators must also assess fuel reserves and supply levels, as many have been stationary for over three months. “The restart isn’t just about declaring the strait open,” Kloza explained. “It’s about rebuilding trust and ensuring ships are ready for the long haul.”
Slow Restart and Regional Production Halt
Even if the Strait of Hormuz is declared open, full restoration of maritime activity may take weeks or months. Kloza estimated that approximately 120 oil tankers filled with cargo would need to exit the Gulf first, followed by 100 empty vessels refilling and departing. However, this process is complicated by the halt in regional oil production and refining, which occurred early in the conflict. Restarting these operations will require time, as well as confidence in the long-term viability of the peace deal.
For now, the situation remains fragile. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drawn international attention, the true impact lies in the slow, deliberate actions of shipping companies and insurers. The delicate balance between security and economic stability continues to shape the outlook for the region’s maritime trade, with analysts suggesting that the full return to normalcy may depend on sustained peace and restored confidence among operators.
