Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?

Can the US Military Sustain a Long War in Iran?

President Donald Trump recently asserted that the United States possesses a “virtually unlimited” supply of weapons, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran has “no hope” of enduring the conflict. Yet, concerns about weapon stockpiles persist, particularly regarding high-grade missiles and interceptors. As the war intensifies, the question remains: how long can Washington maintain its military operations?

Operation Epic Fury, launched on February 28, marked the beginning of a sustained aerial and ground campaign against Iran. In the following week, the US and its allies executed thousands of strikes, targeting over 3,000 locations. Multiple weapon systems were deployed across air, land, and sea, showcasing the breadth of military involvement. Notably, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was reported killed in the initial phase of US-Israeli strikes.

“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command in Florida on March 5. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”

“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” added General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Despite these assurances, Trump hinted at potential limitations. On March 2, he noted that while “medium and upper medium grade” munitions are at record levels, “highest end” stockpiles are still not optimal. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the most critical concerns lie with top-tier weapons like long-range interceptors.

The war’s financial strain becomes evident when comparing the costs of defense systems. A single fighter jet equipped with AIM-9 missiles costs $450,000, with operational expenses adding $40,000 per hour. “The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” Grieco explained. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”

Iran’s Shahed-136 drones, priced between $20,000 and $50,000, have been a significant threat. In response, the US has relied on expensive Patriot missiles, which cost around $3 million each, to counter ballistic missile attacks. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned that these high-grade interceptors are being consumed rapidly. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots, and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” he said. “Around 200-300 have already been used.”

Lockheed Martin, a key defense contractor, delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025. Cancian noted that producing more would take at least two years. “If you asked the company today for another Patriot, it would take time to get it,” he stated. However, shorter-range weapons such as bombs, JDAM kits, and Hellfire missiles appear more abundant, with experts suggesting the US could continue operations for an extended period.

On March 6, Trump convened with defense manufacturers, announcing plans to quadruple production of advanced weaponry. The White House highlighted that this meeting was scheduled weeks in advance. Grieco, though, questioned the urgency of the announcement, stating, “I found that to be like a non-announcement because most of these deals had already been discussed.”