‘This is far worse’: When conflict 2,000 miles away compounds civil war at home

‘This is far worse’: When conflict 2,000 miles away compounds civil war at home

This is far worse – For Maung Nu Sein, a 72-year-old farmer in western Myanmar, the arrival of planting season brings not just hope for a bountiful harvest but also a looming crisis. His fields require fuel for plowing and fertilizer to sustain crops, yet the vessels transporting these essentials are halted 2,000 miles away due to Iran’s dominance of the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has forced the farmer to reckon with a harsh reality: whether he can afford to continue farming when the expenses far exceed his income from rice sales.

The conflict in Myanmar, ignited by a military coup in 2021, has already ravaged the nation for five years. It has displaced millions, fractured the country into zones under military and non-military control, and crippled economic and healthcare systems. Now, the simmering war in the Middle East is intensifying the strain on rural communities, particularly in Rakhine state, where Maung Nu Sein’s struggles are emblematic of a broader crisis.

“There are many farmers who are abandoning their land as they have been struggling with everything,” Maung Nu Sein told CNN from his home. “If we entirely abandon it, the whole community and society will fail because rice is a primary source of food here in our country.”

Myanmar’s agricultural sector, a cornerstone of its economy, has long depended on imports for 90% of its fuel and nearly all of its fertilizer. These supplies, sourced from China, the Middle East, and other regional hubs, are critical for maintaining productivity. However, the recent escalation of tensions between Iran and its adversaries has disrupted these lifelines, sending shockwaves through local farming operations. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global trade, has exacerbated fuel shortages, driving up the cost of transportation and basic goods.

According to UN data, a third of all seaborne fertilizer shipments traverse the Strait of Hormuz, flowing from the arid deserts of the Middle East to the lush paddies of Asia. This bottleneck has left farmers like Maung Nu Sein without access to essential nutrients, forcing them to scale back production. For him, the cost of plowing a field has skyrocketed from $24 to $476 in just one year, a staggering increase that has made it impossible to sustain his operations. “The rice we sell does not even cover the cost of fuel, let alone workers’ costs,” he said, highlighting the economic strain.

Rice is not just a crop in Myanmar—it is a lifeline for millions. Most domestic cultivation is for local consumption, but exports remain a key revenue stream, generating $861 million last year. Yet, with production costs rising and prices for essentials like fuel and fertilizer climbing, the agricultural backbone is under threat. The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the conflict in the Middle East could push 45 million more people worldwide into acute food insecurity by mid-year. In Myanmar alone, 12.5 million people are already struggling with hunger, many living in remote areas or displaced by the ongoing war.

Maung Nu Sein’s situation reflects the compounded challenges faced by rural communities. He has been forced to reduce his farmland by half since last year, a decision made to conserve resources and avoid total collapse. “Some still hold on to working on some parts of their land because they need to eat,” he said, underscoring the precarious balance between survival and sustainability. Without the ability to cover basic costs, he fears the situation will worsen, forcing his family to ration food and possibly sell their belongings for survival.

Global Trade and Local Struggles

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and fertilizer flows, has become a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions. Its closure has disrupted supply chains, raising prices for critical goods. For Myanmar, which relies heavily on imports for fuel and fertilizers, this has created a perfect storm of economic challenges. The military’s blockade of coastal regions has further restricted access to these resources, compounding the impact of the Hormuz crisis.

Transportation costs have surged as fuel shortages force higher prices for energy and logistics. This, in turn, has driven up the cost of everything from irrigation to harvesting, making it difficult for farmers to remain profitable. “The consequences of the Middle East war are having a huge impact here on people already affected by civil war. This is far worse,” Maung Nu Sein added, emphasizing how the international conflict is deepening the domestic crisis.

The Cost of War on Food Security

The World Food Programme (WFP) regional director for Asia Pacific, Samir Wanmali, has sounded the alarm over the worsening food situation. He noted that the timing of the current challenges is particularly dire: as the farming season approaches, fertilizer demand peaks, and water resources are crucial for cultivation. “A reduction in crop yield is absolutely critical, not just for the farmers but the general food supply within the country,” Wanmali stated. “The timing cannot be worse for the people of Myanmar, especially those in Rakhine.”

Myanmar’s dependence on imported inputs means that any disruption in global trade directly affects its agricultural output. With fertilizer prices soaring and fuel costs reaching unprecedented levels, the prospect of planting the next season’s crop is now uncertain. The WFP’s warning underscores the broader implications: if the conflict in the Middle East persists, the ripple effects could spread beyond Myanmar’s borders, exacerbating food shortages in neighboring regions and beyond.

Maung Nu Sein’s personal account illustrates the human toll of these economic shifts. His family of seven struggles to meet daily needs, with the farmer describing the need to eat half a meal per day to keep going. “This war is increasingly choking us,” he said. “All we can do is storm through this by cutting our food intake.” His words echo the experiences of countless others in rural areas, where the combination of war and global trade disruptions has created a cycle of poverty and despair.

The Myanmar Rice Federation chairman, Ye Min Aung, confirmed that the rising prices of fuel, fertilizer, and transport are “putting additional pressure on farmers, millers, traders, and exporters.” This pressure is not just financial but also existential, threatening the stability of an entire industry. For a country already reeling from five years of conflict, the added strain is a double blow, pushing many to the brink of collapse.

While the situation is dire, some in Maung Nu Sein’s community still cling to hope. He points to the plight of displaced people begging on the streets outside his farm, a stark reminder of the growing inequality. “Many are starving out there,” he said, his voice heavy with concern. “We have to survive, but the system is breaking down.”

As the crisis deepens, the question remains: how long can Myanmar’s farmers endure? The interplay of domestic conflict and international tensions has created a situation where the cost of survival is no longer just a matter of economics, but a matter of life and death. For Maung Nu Sein, the struggle is not just about sustaining his livelihood—it is about preserving his community’s future. The road ahead is uncertain, but the stakes have never been higher.