Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei. That’s not the full picture

Beyond the Crowds: Understanding Iran’s Complex Mourning After Khamenei’s Death

A Divided Nation in Grief

Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei – As funeral services unfolded before the coffin of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Sunday, a scene of apparent unity emerged. Top government officials and three of the ayatollah’s sons stood among the gathered crowds. Yet beneath this surface harmony lay a more complicated reality. Several former presidents, individuals who had clashed with the current administration, conspicuously failed to appear. Their missing presence challenged Tehran’s persistent narrative of national “unity” that has permeated every aspect of Khamenei’s week-long funeral ceremonies.

This carefully constructed messaging served multiple purposes. According to international observers, the goal was to demonstrate to both Washington and Jerusalem that external military pressure would neither topple the Islamic Republic nor spark widespread internal rebellion. The funeral proceedings, which concluded Thursday with Khamenei’s interment in the historic northeastern city of Mashhad, certainly featured millions of participants who genuinely supported the Islamic Republic’s mission.

However, the complete picture reveals a nation of contrasts. With approximately 90 million citizens, Iran represents two distinct populations: those who weep openly for their leader, and those who remain largely indifferent. Many ordinary Iranians harbor resentment toward what they perceive as an elaborate theatrical display, connecting Khamenei personally to an authoritarian system that has progressively suppressed opposition over decades. Meanwhile, others experience profound apathy, with certain citizens viewing the funeral period as a chance to escape overcrowded urban centers.

The Tight Ship of Regime Control

The selective attendance at funeral events demonstrates the organizers’ firm control over participation. The current regime’s core supporters appear more energized than at any recent point in history. Yet the missing presence of Mojtaba Khamenei—both the supreme leader’s son and designated successor—has generated considerable speculation regarding his current location and status.

The organizing committee of the funeral had the opportunity to project regime unity by including figures such as pro-reform former presidents. Instead, they decided to go for a tight ship, only core and top officials of the regime.

These observations come from Arash Azizi, an Iran specialist based in the United States and author of “What Iranians Want.” The new supreme leader has remained largely invisible to the public since receiving his appointment following his father’s passing.

Expert Analysis on Regime Stability

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, suggested that Khamenei’s funeral has successfully reinvigorated the regime’s foundation. Support within the leadership circle appears stronger than ever, though Parsi cautioned that this does not necessarily represent majority approval across the entire nation.

The absent reformist presidents—Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani—both previously experienced tensions with Khamenei, according to Azizi. Both were effectively removed from power by the supreme leader. Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shares a similar history, though as a hardliner who eventually fell out with Khamenei and was consequently marginalized. Ahmadinejad did make a rare public appearance at Monday’s funeral ceremonies, captured in an image showing him walking through the massive crowds during the procession.

Tehran wants to project that it can lose its supreme leader without losing its continuity of governance. Massive crowds and carefully choreographed ceremonies reinforce that message, but the conspicuous absence of key figures also reminds the world that the leadership still feels profoundly vulnerable and is not seeking to cast a broad umbrella.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, provided this assessment to CNN.

Arrests and Repression During Crisis

At the war’s beginning, both the United States and Israel placed significant emphasis on potential regime change in Iran, though experts considered this outcome unlikely given Tehran’s established succession mechanisms. Each assassination has traditionally been followed by a new appointment, frequently resulting in harder-line leadership than before.

Analysts now identify a complex array of public sentiments within a country whose leadership has long relied on coercion and oppression to quiet opposition. Since hostilities with the US and Israel commenced earlier this year, Iran has conducted extensive arrests under the justification of “wartime conditions.” Amnesty International’s May report documented that Iranian authorities have arbitrarily detained more than 6,000 individuals, encompassing protesters, journalists, legal professionals, human rights advocates, political dissidents, and members of ethnic and religious minorities.

Additionally, judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir announced via the semi-official Student News Network that over 3,000 people were arrested in the previous month alone for allegedly collaborating with “the enemy.” Iran had projected that as many as 15 million mourners would attend the funeral ceremonies, a number that would represent roughly one-sixth of the nation’s total population.