Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Grand National 2026: Saturday, 11 April
The Grand National, held at Aintree, is a cornerstone of the British racing calendar. However, its 34 participants often make the outcome feel like a gamble. While historical winners might offer insights, can they reliably point to the 2026 victor? BBC Sport examines the data to uncover potential patterns.
Past Winners and Odds
Since 2000, the Grand National has been contested 25 times, with a gap in 2020 due to the pandemic. Tiger Roll stood out as the shortest-priced winner in 2019 at 4-1, achieving consecutive triumphs after Red Rum’s 1970s dominance. Conversely, Mon Mome’s 2009 win came at 100-1, and last year’s champion, Nick Rockett, was priced at 33-1. The century’s average winning odds hover just below 24-1, though the past decade has seen five winners with odds of 11-1 or shorter.
Weight Trends
Over the past 25 years, winners have typically carried between 10st 3lb and 11st 9lb. This range could help narrow the field, though I Am Maximus, the 2026 favorite, is attempting to become the first top-weight champion since Red Rum’s 12-stone victory in 1974. Nine of the last 11 winners fell within 10st 5lb to 11st 8lb, with 10st 12lb and 10st 13lb being the most successful individual weights, each securing three wins.
Age and Experience
No horse aged 10 or older has claimed the Grand National since 2014, suggesting a preference for younger contenders. Yet, Noble Yeats defied this trend in 2022, becoming the first seven-year-old winner since Bogskar in 1940. In the last decade, six victories have gone to eight-year-olds, with three to nine-year-olds, including Tiger Roll’s return in 2019. While experience isn’t always decisive, the absence of older winners hints at a possible pattern.
Trainers and Jockeys
Willie Mullins, who trained the last two champions, secured his first Grand National wins since Hedgehunter in 2005. His stable has also produced six top-five finishes in the past 10 years. Gordon Elliott, known for Tiger Roll’s back-to-back wins, has had four top-five results in the decade, while Henry de Bromhead, with a 2021 victory, added two more podium finishes. Together, these three trainers are set to handle 16 of the 34 runners in this year’s race.
Official Ratings
The handicapper assigns official ratings to all competitors. In the past 16 races, 14 winners were rated 146 or higher, with 13 falling between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett, both rated within this range, could reflect the trend.
In short, no.
