The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?
The US Blockade of Iran Is a Gamble. Will It Work?
Amid ongoing tensions, the United States has unveiled a plan to impose a blockade on Iranian maritime traffic. While the feasibility of such an operation is clear, its ultimate success remains uncertain. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery emphasized to the BBC that the maneuver is achievable, noting it poses less risk than alternative strategies, such as confronting Iranian forces directly in the Strait of Hormuz.
“I do think it’s doable,” Montgomery said. “And it’s certainly less risky than the alternative, which would have been to forcibly push back the Iranians and create the conditions for a convoy.”
Recent proposals by President Trump, including the capture of Kharg Island or securing convoys through the Strait, have been deemed more perilous. These actions could expose US forces to Iranian missile strikes, drone attacks, and fast-attack vessels. Additionally, the potential for uncharted minefields in the water would heighten the challenge. In contrast, a blockade allows US warships to operate safely from the Gulf of Oman, monitoring and intercepting vessels as they exit Iranian ports.
The US military’s readiness for this task is supported by its available assets, such as special forces, helicopters, and swift boats. Previous blockades of Venezuela and Cuba have served as proof of this capability. The recent seizure of the Russian oil tanker Marinera in the northern Atlantic further illustrates how such operations can be executed with minimal risk in distant waters.
However, the effectiveness of the blockade hinges on its ability to disrupt Iran’s oil exports. Centcom claims the effort will target all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, though those using other ports will remain unaffected. Humanitarian vessels will be allowed to pass but will face inspections. The key question remains: can the US cut off Iran’s vital revenue stream without triggering a stronger Iranian response?
Iran’s ability to withstand economic pressure is a critical factor. Despite sustained attacks from the US and Israel, the country has maintained its oil exports. A new blockade might not be enough to derail its resilience, especially as rising oil prices could further strain global markets. “They believe they can outweigh this,” said David Satterfield, a former US special envoy. “The US will feel pain from oil prices, and Gulf states may push for the Strait to reopen.”
Maritime analysts are closely tracking the flow of vessels from Iranian ports. “I’m literally looking at ships that are going through now,” remarked Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence expert. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, noted a surge in traffic after Trump’s initial announcement, with around 30 traceable transits recorded in the Strait of Hormuz. “It looked like a flurry of vessels trying to get out,” he observed. As of now, activity appears subdued, suggesting the blockade’s immediate impact may be limited.
The conflict has shifted into a standoff between two blockades, with the global economy bearing the brunt. China’s diplomatic engagement with Iran in Islamabad hints at broader strategic implications. As the world’s largest importer of Iranian oil, Beijing’s patience could influence the outcome. Trump’s latest maneuver is a calculated risk, with consequences yet to fully unfold.
