Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon’s Peace Efforts Amid Ongoing Strife

Recent tensions in Lebanon have brought the nation to the brink of renewed conflict. During a visit to the Baabda Palace in August, a modernist structure perched atop a hill overlooking Beirut, I met with President Joseph Aoun. A former military leader, he assumed office following a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia linked to Iran. At the time, Hezbollah had suffered setbacks and was politically isolated, yet Aoun pledged to dismantle its arsenal. “I was born an optimist,” he remarked, expressing hope for a resolution.

A fragile truce had temporarily halted the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in November 2024. However, Israel continued launching frequent strikes targeting individuals and groups connected to Hezbollah. In certain regions, the war had never truly ceased. From my residence in eastern Beirut, I could occasionally hear the whirring of Israeli drones patrolling the skies. For Hezbollah’s allies, the group serves as a shield against Israeli aggression, which they view as a threat to their homeland. Critics, however, argue that Hezbollah prioritizes its Iranian ties, perpetuating wars that strain Lebanon’s stability.

Historical Context of Hezbollah’s Influence

Founded in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah emerged as a resistance force within the country’s civil war. Backed by Iran, it has maintained a dual role as both a militant organization and a political party. The 1989 Taif Agreement, which concluded Lebanon’s civil war, required all militias to relinquish weapons and established a power-sharing system among religious groups. Despite this, Hezbollah retained its arms, framing itself as a defender of Lebanese territory against Israeli encroachment.

In 2000, Israel withdrew its troops after an 18-year occupation, but disputes over borders lingered. UN Resolution 1701, enacted in 2006, aimed to end the conflict and demand Hezbollah’s disarmament, yet the group’s weapons remain in place. Designated as a terrorist entity by the UK and the US, Hezbollah also operates as a social institution, managing schools and hospitals in regions where the state exerts minimal control. It has become Lebanon’s dominant political and military entity.

President Aoun, seeking to prevent further bloodshed, proposed direct talks with Israel—a bold move for two nations that lack diplomatic recognition. Israel delayed engagement until the U.S. brokered a ceasefire with Iran, following a deadly air strike that killed over 300 Lebanese in a single day. Ambassadors from both countries are set to meet in Washington on Tuesday, focusing on a potential pause in hostilities. However, Aoun faces a dilemma: his administration has advocated for a “state monopoly on arms,” but Hezbollah refuses to cede its weapons entirely.

“We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” Aoun warned during our August conversation.

With limited authority over Hezbollah, the Lebanese government struggles to enforce disarmament. The group’s resistance to full de-escalation raises questions about the feasibility of lasting peace. As Israeli strikes persist and Hezbollah’s political clout grows, the path to resolution remains uncertain.