Jeremy Bowen: Trump is waging war based on instinct and it isn’t working

Jeremy Bowen: Trump is waging war based on instinct and it isn’t working

Since the start of the military conflict between the United States and Iran, several enduring principles of warfare have been echoed within the White House. However, Donald Trump’s approach appears to have overlooked these lessons, leading to a critical dilemma. Without a diplomatic resolution with Tehran, he must either claim a hollow triumph or intensify the war effort. This situation recalls a classic military maxim from Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, who stated in 1871, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” His words underscore the importance of adaptability, a trait that seems absent in Trump’s strategy.

Trump’s instinct-driven tactics mirror a more modern interpretation from Mike Tyson, the boxer: “Everyone has a plan until they get hit.” This sentiment aligns with the wisdom of Dwight D. Eisenhower, a former president and WWII general, who emphasized that “plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” Eisenhower, having orchestrated the D-Day invasion, understood that thorough preparation allows for swift adjustments when circumstances shift unexpectedly. Yet, Trump’s reliance on gut feelings, rather than strategic planning, has left his administration ill-equipped to navigate the complexities of the conflict.

Four weeks into the war, the U.S. and Israel launched a bombing campaign targeting Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The operation, which claimed the lives of 1,464 Iranian civilians according to HRANA, a U.S.-based organization tracking human rights abuses in the country, was intended to spark a popular revolt. However, the Iranian regime has not only endured but also regrouped, demonstrating resilience that Trump’s team underestimated. This stands in stark contrast to the U.S. military’s swift capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in January, an event that saw the regime’s collapse under external pressure.

While Trump’s inner circle focuses on executing his vision, the lack of a cohesive strategy has hampered the effectiveness of military actions. His tendency to rely on intuition, rather than detailed planning, has made it difficult to anticipate the regime’s responses. As the war drags on, the absence of a clear political objective undermines the full potential of American forces. The regime in Tehran remains steadfast, and Trump is now realizing why his predecessors hesitated to join Netanyahu in a preemptive strike against the Islamic Republic.

Opponents of the Iranian government have not mobilized as expected. They are acutely aware of the brutal suppression of protests by state forces in January, which left thousands dead. Official warnings have been issued, discouraging any attempt to revive the same unrest. Trump’s approach, which prioritizes instinct over preparation, has yet to deliver the desired results, highlighting the challenges of waging war without a well-defined plan.