Exclusive: Iranian authorities prepare for civil war scenario
Exclusive: Iranian authorities prepare for civil war scenario
Iranian political and military leaders are now readying themselves for the prospect of a civil war following ongoing Israeli and U.S. attacks on the country, according to sources close to the situation.
Officials within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that senior security and military commanders had anticipated another confrontation after the 12-day conflict with Israel and the U.S. in June last year.
In the aftermath, they have implemented preparations for a potential internal conflict scenario.
Strategic Shift
A source inside the IRGC explained that following the war, the country’s official army command and the Revolutionary Guard were granted broader operational authority across western, southwestern, and southeastern Iran. The goal was to ensure their ability to function autonomously if communication with central command was disrupted.
“It was clear that in the next war, the US and Israel would turn to the same scenarios they used in Iraq and Syria,” the source said.
They added that during the 12-day conflict, the adversary recognized Iran’s capacity to retaliate with nationwide missile strikes. As a result, one of the first strategies post-war was to create independent command hubs and station additional ground troops in regions likely to be focal points in a civil war.
The expansion of ground forces commenced in September, unfolding in phases and framed as public military drills.
Regional Vulnerabilities
The Kurdish regions have been a particular focus, as the ruling establishment anticipates attacks from Iranian Kurdish armed groups in Iraq, backed by U.S. and Israeli support.
Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, warned in a message on 28 December: “Separatist groups should not think they will have an opportunity to act. We will not tolerate them.”
Iranian Kurdish armed groups based in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq have executed multiple guerilla operations in border areas and nearby villages. Some of these groups also engaged against Iran during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, aligning with Saddam Hussein’s forces.
Last week, five Iranian Kurdish armed groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan declared a strategic alliance and pledged readiness to confront the Iranian establishment. The Komala Party of Iran, another Kurdish faction, also joined the coalition.
Meanwhile, several sources reported that the United States is engaging in discussions with Iranian Kurdish groups to entice them into a ground war against Iranian forces.
Targeted Zones
A review of strike locations since 28 February reveals that, outside Tehran, the majority of U.S. and Israeli attacks have concentrated on Kurdish cities.
The cities of Marivan, Sanandaj, Saqqez, Baneh, Sarvabad, and Kermanshah have been primary targets, with strikes damaging not only military installations but also police offices, municipalities, border posts, and command centers.
Iran, in response, launched missile strikes on Wednesday targeting the headquarters of Kurdish armed groups in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Similar concerns exist in other regions. In the southwest, the military command in Khuzestan, an oil-rich province, has been given expanded authority. The Ahwaziyya separatist group has emerged in this area, conducting several attacks in recent years.
In the southeast, Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran’s poorest province, is also viewed as susceptible. Armed groups there have carried out frequent assaults on official military units and civilians.
