Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose

Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose

As Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen prepares for a meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California this week, concerns have emerged about a potential escalation of tensions. This encounter has revived worries of a repeat of the military pressure China exerted last year following then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. During that period, Beijing launched extensive drills, firing multiple missiles into Taiwan’s surrounding waters and deploying dozens of warplanes across the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait.

The previous campaign saw China sever diplomatic links with the United States, affecting areas from military cooperation to climate change initiatives. This time, Beijing has already issued warnings of a “resolutely fight back” stance if the Tsai-McCarthy meeting proceeds. It also expressed frustration over Washington’s decision to allow Tsai to stopover in the US during her travels to Central America, suggesting this could trigger a serious clash between the two nations.

Tsai, undeterred, emphasized her commitment to maintaining Taiwan’s global connections. As she embarked on her 10-day trip, she vowed not to let external pressures hinder Taiwan’s engagement with like-minded democracies. However, the meeting’s location in California and its timing—during a volatile phase in China’s foreign relations and ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election—may influence Beijing’s approach. Analysts suggest the pressure on China to avoid overreaction has increased, as any aggressive response risks alienating international allies.

“This puts the burden on China not to overreact, because any overreaction is only going to push China further away from the world,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.

The opacity within China’s governance system and internal bureaucratic rivalries complicate predictions about its response. “Every time Taiwan does anything that China doesn’t like, the Chinese react with their own military coercion,” Sun noted. “But in the current situation, they have to consider the consequences of overreaction,” she added.

The expected meeting, announced by McCarthy’s office earlier this week for Wednesday, coincides with heightened US-China tensions. Issues such as a downed Chinese surveillance balloon and disputes over semiconductor supply chains have strained communication between the two powers. If Beijing retaliates as it did during Pelosi’s visit, the fallout could intensify, with Taiwan already bearing the brunt of that prior response.

“It’s clearly a capstone event,” remarked Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. “She has this image as the Taiwanese president who has taken US-Taiwan relations to new heights, and who … has been able to give Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility.”

Despite China’s ambitions to claim Taiwan as its own, the island remains a self-governing democracy. Over the past decade, the Communist Party has significantly expanded its military capabilities under leader Xi Jinping. Yet, Taiwan’s growing visibility and closer ties with the US have persisted despite this pressure. The island’s proximity to mainland China—fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers)—adds to the strategic significance of the meeting, as Beijing continues to pursue its goal of unifying the territory through force if required.