As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

As Former Nato Chief Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the Military Shrunk?

Lord Robertson, who recently oversaw the Strategic Defence Review (SDR), has raised concerns that the UK’s security is at risk due to insufficient investment in military capabilities. He criticized the government’s approach, stating:

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”

Since the end of the Cold War in 1990, the UK military has undergone significant downsizing. The regular army, which once numbered 153,000 soldiers, now stands at 73,790. The 2025 SDR proposed maintaining the army’s strength above 73,000, but MoD data reveals a 40% drop in enlistment applications in 2025 compared to 2024. Similarly, the number of reservists has plummeted from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 today.

The Royal Navy has also seen a reduction, with its major combat fleet shrinking from 48 vessels (13 destroyers, 35 frigates) in 1990 to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. This decline has sparked criticism, particularly after the Navy took weeks to deploy HMS Dragon to the Gulf in 2025 to support a RAF base in Cyprus. Meanwhile, the RAF has transitioned from over 300 combat jets in the 1990s to a mix of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, which are more advanced but fewer in number.

Uncrewed aircraft systems, or drones, have emerged as a critical component of the UK’s air capabilities. These systems, which did not exist in 1990, now play a vital role, especially given their impact in the Ukraine conflict. Analysts note that drones have surpassed traditional artillery in killing efficiency, underscoring the need for greater investment in such technologies.

Despite the criticisms, the government claims it is set to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027. However, this goal is seen as modest, as defence funding has generally declined since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The UK also aims to reach 3% of GDP for defence by the next Parliament and 5% for national security by 2035, which includes spending on infrastructure protection and civil preparedness.

Lord Robertson highlighted the disparity between defence and welfare spending, noting that welfare budgets now exceed defence funding. While welfare spending was lower than defence in the mid-1980s, it is projected to rise to 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade, driven in part by increased Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims. Though mental health issues may contribute to this trend, experts remain unsure of the exact factors.

MoD procurement projects, which account for 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) entries, face challenges. The National Audit Office (NAO) reported that 12 of these projects were rated ‘Red,’ indicating their delivery appears unlikely. The report also noted that it takes an average of six and a half years to award contracts for projects exceeding £20 million. This inefficiency contrasts with the 2025 SDR’s push for faster contract delivery within two years.