A free Iran is their shared dream. But the diaspora remains torn on the best path forward.

A Free Iran is Their Shared Dream. But the Diaspora Remains Torn on the Best Path Forward

In the heart of Los Angeles, two contrasting demonstrations unfolded last Saturday. On one side, a crowd of Iranian Americans gathered near City Hall, raising voices against the initiation of an unsanctioned war. Their slogans echoed demands for peace, such as “Stop the war in Iran” and “We the people don’t want war.” Meanwhile, on the Westside, in the Tehrangeles neighborhood, the same diaspora community celebrated what some saw as a turning point for regime change. They waved American, Israeli, and Iranian flags, danced to upbeat music, and rejoiced at the news of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike.

The Iranian diaspora’s emotional divide has grown more pronounced as violence intensifies in the Middle East. This tension is especially evident among those who fled the theocratic regime established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, noted that some are “so aggrieved at this regime that they say, ‘At any cost, come and destroy this regime even if it means destroying parts of the country.’” Others, however, advocate for toppling the regime without resorting to war, emphasizing the need for a peaceful transition.

“The images of destruction and the very joyous support that some give to the idea of war has become a source of more tension than we normally get in the diaspora,” Milani said. “It will get harder before it dissipates.”

Earlier this year, the diaspora appeared more unified in backing Iranians resisting the government’s harsh crackdown. But now, their opinions have diverged sharply. Debates over leadership have intensified, with some favoring Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, while others remain cautious about reinstating ties to the former monarchy. The government’s internet blackout has further complicated communication, leaving many Iranians unable to reach loved ones during the crisis.

Nowruz, the Persian New Year, looms as a symbol of renewal, yet its significance feels overshadowed by the turmoil. Rumors suggest Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, may assume the role of supreme leader. Analysts warn that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful force in Iran, could consolidate its influence if the current conflict continues.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has expressed interest in removing Iran’s leadership structure entirely, offering potential names for a “good leader.” A recent NBC News poll reveals that 54% of potential voters disapprove of Trump’s approach, reflecting a similar split within the Iranian diaspora. Earlier data from a NIAC-YouGov survey showed 53% of Iranian Americans opposed U.S. military action, with a new poll set to release updated findings next week.

“We are not a monolith,” stated the Iranian Diaspora Collective, an Instagram account with over 81,000 followers. “Millions of people will never share the same ideology or identity, and that plurality is the strength of any free society.” Los Angeles-based pastor Ara Torosian, a Christian who fled Iran in 2010, shared his anguish over the destruction of historic sites and the loss of innocent lives, particularly children. He recounted being jailed and beaten by the Revolutionary Guard for possessing Christian items in his Tehran home. Despite the suffering, Torosian expressed relief at the supreme leader’s death, calling it a moment of hope.