Trump promised to cut electric bills in half. His energy policy is doing the opposite, new analysis finds

Trump’s Energy Policies Driving Up Electricity Costs, New Analysis Reveals

Trump promised to cut electric bills – A sharp rise in electricity demand across the United States, fueled by the expansion of artificial intelligence, has created a critical energy situation that directly challenges President Donald Trump’s claims of cost-cutting. Despite his campaign promises to halve energy bills, a recent report from the Energy Innovation think tank suggests that his administration’s focus on reducing renewable energy development is instead increasing costs for American households. The analysis highlights a growing disconnect between Trump’s rhetoric and the reality of energy affordability, which has become a pivotal issue in this year’s midterm elections.

Renewable Energy Rollbacks and Rising Bills

The report, published by Energy Innovation, warns that Trump’s policies will lead to higher energy expenses over the next decade. Key to this projection is the administration’s aggressive stance against wind and solar power, which has slowed the growth of clean energy infrastructure. By prioritizing fossil fuels and undermining subsidies for renewables, the Trump team has positioned itself against the very technologies that could lower long-term energy prices. According to the findings, average household energy costs are expected to climb by $460 by 2035 and $490 by 2040, with the total cost to consumers exceeding half a trillion dollars by 2040.

“There’s just a direct line from that set of policies to increasing energy bills,” said Robbie Orvis, Energy Innovation’s senior director of modeling and analysis.

The administration’s actions have also made it more difficult to permit clean energy projects. This has resulted in a shift toward coal-fired power, which is more expensive to operate than renewable alternatives. Meanwhile, the US electric vehicle market has faced significant pressure from Trump’s policies, which have targeted incentives for clean transportation. These combined efforts have created a scenario where energy affordability is being compromised at a time when demand is surging.

Political Impact and Market Reactions

Electricity rates have spiked nationwide by 7.4% since last fall, with over a dozen states experiencing double-digit annual increases. This surge is attributed to a combination of factors, including the rapid expansion of data centers and the limited supply of new energy generation. While voter frustration is widespread, it is particularly evident in the mid-Atlantic region, where data centers’ electricity consumption has exacerbated price hikes.

“It is materially impacting Americans’ pocketbooks in a negative sense,” said Sam Ricketts, co-founder of clean energy consulting firm S2 Strategies.

Despite these trends, solar and battery storage continue to thrive. In fact, solar and battery projects accounted for 91% of new energy capacity added in the first quarter of 2026, according to the report. This growth is being driven by a loophole introduced in Trump’s tax law, which allows developers to accelerate project timelines. The policy has created an environment where renewable energy investments are still advancing, even as the administration actively seeks to curb their expansion.

Contrasting Perspectives on Energy Policy

The Trump administration has defended its approach, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright expressing satisfaction over the end of clean energy tax credits. In a statement, Wright called renewable energy “low-value,” emphasizing the benefits of market-driven solutions. Department of Energy spokesperson Ben Dietderich echoed this sentiment, describing the Biden administration’s policies as “energy subtraction” that raised prices and strained the power grid.

“The reality is the Working Families Tax Cuts ended Biden’s costly Green New Scam, rolled back burdensome regulations, and bolstered US energy production to lower prices for American families,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers.

Rogers also criticized Energy Innovation’s report, arguing that it is biased due to the organization’s funding from a progressive dark money group. However, clean energy analysts counter that Trump’s policies are exacerbating the crisis. They point to the lack of investment in new energy sources, which has led to higher costs and reduced grid reliability. Even as the administration pushes to reverse Biden-era regulations, the cumulative effect of its decisions is driving up expenses for consumers.

Broader Economic and Environmental Impacts

The consequences of Trump’s energy strategy extend beyond electricity bills. Rising energy costs have contributed to higher inflation, as consumers face increased prices for both power and gasoline. This has placed additional strain on households, particularly in regions where renewable energy adoption is still growing. Despite these challenges, the report acknowledges that solar and battery storage are seeing robust growth, thanks to the tax loophole that provides a financial incentive for developers.

Orvis noted that the Trump administration’s policies are not only slowing the transition to cleaner energy but also creating a race to complete projects before the window closes. This urgency is evident in the rapid pace of solar installations, which are expected to add 170 gigawatts of new capacity between 2026 and 2030. However, analysts argue that this growth is being offset by the administration’s efforts to reduce renewable subsidies and prioritize traditional energy sources.

As the midterm elections approach, energy affordability has become a central topic for voters. Trump’s campaign promises to lower costs are now being scrutinized against the reality of higher bills, with critics pointing to the administration’s actions as the primary cause. The report from Energy Innovation serves as a stark reminder that the path to cheaper energy may require more support for renewables, rather than reducing their development.

Looking Ahead: A Policy Dilemma

While the Trump administration maintains that its policies are beneficial for the economy, the data suggests otherwise. The report highlights how limiting renewable energy projects during a period of high demand has created a shortage of affordable generation options. This has forced utilities to rely more heavily on coal, which is not only more expensive but also less efficient in meeting modern energy needs.

“Trump’s tax bill will help lower electricity costs by allowing market forces dictate what new electricity generation gets built,” Dietderich told CNN in a statement.

The debate over energy policy is intensifying as the cost of electricity continues to rise. With the midterm elections looming, the administration’s ability to control the narrative will be crucial. However, the evidence from Energy Innovation and other analysts indicates that the current trajectory is unsustainable, and that the push for renewable energy is necessary to stabilize prices and ensure long-term affordability.

As the nation grapples with the dual challenges of rising energy costs and climate change, the role of the federal government in shaping the energy landscape has never been more critical. Trump’s policies, while aimed at reducing renewable subsidies, are inadvertently creating a scenario where consumers are paying more for power. The question now is whether this trend will continue or if the push for clean energy will eventually reverse its course, despite the administration’s efforts to hinder progress.