Trump’s Hormuz deadline looms but Asian nations have already struck deals with Iran
Iran’s Hormuz Deadline and Regional Engagement
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a warning that Iran could face a sudden military strike if it didn’t agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening. However, several nations had already secured arrangements with Tehran for their vessels to navigate the vital waterway before this latest threat. Asian countries, notably the Philippines, have shown significant interest in reaching such agreements, as their economies depend heavily on energy imports from the Gulf.
Strait of Hormuz as a Global Flashpoint
The strategic passage has become a focal point for international tensions after Iran retaliated against U.S. and Israeli airstrikes by vowing to target ships in the strait. Since the disruption, oil prices have increased sharply, given that a fifth of the world’s energy shipments pass through this narrow channel. Trump previously stated that the U.S. no longer required the Gulf’s oil, pushing countries reliant on the region’s energy to deploy warships and take initiative in resuming trade.
Regional Nations Secure Agreements
In recent weeks, multiple Asian nations including Pakistan, India, and the Philippines have negotiated safe passage for their ships with Iran. China also confirmed that some of its vessels had traversed the strait, though details were limited. The Philippines, the latest to finalize an agreement, received assurances for the “safe, unhindered, and expeditious passage” of its ships through the waterway, according to its foreign affairs secretary, Theresa Lazaro.
“This agreement, reached after a very productive phone conversation with Tehran on Thursday, is vital for ensuring energy and fertiliser supplies,” said Lazaro.
Uncertainty Over Assurances
There are still questions about the extent of these agreements and their durability. Dimitris Maniatis from shipping consultancy Marisks noted that it’s unclear whether guarantees apply universally or are restricted to specific vessels. Meanwhile, Roc Shi from the University of Technology Sydney highlighted that energy-dependent nations are now aware they must engage with Iran to restore shipments.
“Dialogue, diplomacy, and such confidence-building measures are the only way forward,” stated Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar following the March 28 announcement.
“Our Indian friends are in safe hands, no worries,” the Iranian Embassy in India posted on X, responding to a claim from its offices in South Africa that only Iran and Oman would control the strait’s future.
“The passage of our tankers was the result of diplomacy,” India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the Financial Times in March.
China’s Role in Negotiations
China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, confirmed that some of its ships had crossed the strait recently. A foreign ministry spokeswoman described the transit as “a result of coordination with relevant parties.” Despite the conflict, vessel-tracking data show U.S.-sanctioned Iranian oil continues to reach China, suggesting ongoing trade flows. Beijing maintains friendly ties with Tehran and has joined Pakistan in efforts to broker a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
