In Iran, hope gives way to fear as conflict rages on

In Iran, hope gives way to fear as conflict rages on

One month into the US-Israeli military campaign in Iran, the initial optimism for regime collapse has faded. DW interviewed Iranians about the evolving sentiment as the conflict persists. Early in the war, many viewed the strikes as a catalyst to destabilize or dismantle the Islamic Republic. Trump had urged Iranians to “take over your government,” suggesting that a better opportunity for revolution might not arise for generations. However, with the conflict entering its fourth week, the spread of attacks targeting civilian areas has reshaped public perception, shifting focus from regime change to concerns about prolonged conflict and civilian suffering.

“The government remains intact despite the destruction, and this has led to a change in how people see the war’s outcome,” said an anonymous Tehran resident, speaking to DW.

At the onset, some Iranians believed the strikes could spark renewed public unrest, especially after the recent nationwide protests were brutally suppressed. For opposition supporters, the US-Israeli actions were seen as a potential spark for lasting political transformation. Yet, as missiles and bombs continue to fall, the illusion of swift change has dissolved. The attack on a school in Minab, a southern city, became a poignant symbol of this shift, illustrating the growing reality of civilian casualties and uncertainty.

Psychological strain has also intensified. Iranians now grapple with anxiety over the war’s future, even as they navigate daily routines that feel increasingly dangerous. A resident noted that authorities still demand physical presence at work, despite the constant risk of air strikes. “Absence from public life can be seen as defiance, which adds pressure on people to comply,” the individual explained.

Differing Objectives Fuel Uncertainty

Analysts highlight the lack of consensus on the war’s goals. Babak Dorbeiki, a former deputy at Iran’s Strategic Research Center, emphasized that Israel and the US have distinct aims. “While Israel seeks collapse, the US appears focused on other objectives,” Dorbeiki told DW. This divergence has left Iranians questioning the conflict’s ultimate outcome, as the regime’s grip on society remains unbroken.

As the war continues, the focus has shifted from overthrowing the regime to assessing the toll on civilians. Many now worry about the long-term consequences, including economic strain, damaged infrastructure, and intensified repression. The fear is that the Islamic Republic may endure, but with new challenges叠加 on existing issues, deepening public frustration.