Small window open for US-Iran talks, but swift end to war still unlikely
Small window open for US-Iran talks, but swift end to war still unlikely
US President Donald Trump’s bold assertion of “very strong talks” with Iran sparked optimism about diplomacy, suggesting a potential “complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” Yet Iran swiftly dismissed these claims, leaving only faint indications of progress. The fragile openings in dialogue, however, have already been shattered by past US-backed Israeli strikes, which damaged trust during earlier negotiations in February and June of the previous year.
There is some reported communication between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff, but these exchanges remain in early stages. Tehran now views Witkoff’s approach as a ploy, with Iran’s foreign ministry accusing the US of using presidential statements to “reduce energy prices and buy time for the implementation of his military plans.”
Trump’s strategy appears to mirror his efforts in Venezuela, where he sought to engage an interim leader with a flexible stance. He now identifies Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, a prominent figure in Iran’s security apparatus, as a potential key. Ghalibaf has held roles including police chief and air force commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while also serving as speaker of the parliament. Despite four failed presidential bids, he is seen as a strongman capable of bridging divides between Iran’s security and political institutions.
Indirect attempts to connect with Ghalibaf have been made, but no official progress has emerged. For Iran, this is a high-stakes gamble, as Israel has been assassinating key figures like Ali Larijani, the hardline security chief who was a potential mediator. Since Larijani’s death, Ghalibaf has become a focal point for negotiations, though his ideological rigidity remains a concern. “He’s the last man standing who’s seen as more ideologically flexible,” a source noted. “But even Trump said if he named him, they’d kill him, and Israel immediately named him.”
“This is the most interesting track to watch,” remarked Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. However, she emphasized that neither side would meet at that level until the US and Iran approach a political breakthrough, requiring extensive negotiations.
Ghalibaf has also taken to social media, countering Trump’s statements with sharp rhetoric. In a recent post on X, he declared, “Our people demand the complete and humiliating punishment of the aggressors.” “No negotiations with America have taken place,” he added, reinforcing his stance. With tensions high and both sides entrenched in their positions, any meeting would represent a significant risk.
Currently, diplomatic efforts are centered on phone calls and mediated proposals. New countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey have entered this long-standing crisis, yet clarity on their impact remains elusive.
