Is Iran’s regime at a breaking point?

Is Iran’s Regime at a Breaking Point?

Eighteen days into the escalating conflict, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are still operational, though they have endured considerable losses. Their ability to persist suggests a resilient command system, even as external pressures mount. Analysts, however, note that the regime’s internal framework is showing signs of strain.

Following the US and Israel’s initial strikes on Iran, which targeted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key figures in the political and military spheres, the assumption was that the core of the Islamic Republic’s authority had been severely weakened. Yet, as the third week of hostilities unfolds, this belief is being challenged. Middle East expert Habib Hosseini-Fard told DW that the power structure has not only endured the initial shock but continues to function effectively.

“The assessment that the regime’s central authority is on the verge of collapse does not align with the current reality,” said Hosseini-Fard. “Iran’s power structure has adapted to the crisis, demonstrating its durability.”

Despite the elimination of high-ranking officials, the IRGC remains a pivotal force, launching attacks across multiple fronts against the US, Israel, and regional adversaries. Israel’s recent strikes reportedly killed Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, leader of the Basij militia, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict.

Meanwhile, US Central Command reported that Iran had executed over 300 attacks in the past fortnight, targeting Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, Turkey, Azerbaijan, the UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry confirmed intercepting more than 60 drones within its airspace since midnight. These actions underscore the vast scale of the confrontation, with the UAE also reporting one fatality and an injured individual in Abu Dhabi due to debris from Iranian projectiles.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has dismissed the possibility of ceasefire discussions, stating that as long as the US and Israel continue targeting Iranian assets, negotiations will be off the table. This resilience is attributed to the IRGC’s flexible command model, which allows it to respond swiftly to shifting dynamics. Established post-1979 Islamic Revolution, the IRGC was initially created to safeguard the state’s ideology and prevent internal coups. Over time, it has evolved from a centralized institution into a decentralized network, with provincial units operating with significant autonomy.

According to Hosseini-Fard, the IRGC’s structural adaptability has been crucial in maintaining its effectiveness. “The Revolutionary Guards’ ability to function independently, coupled with Iran’s strategic reserves and subterranean missile installations, ensures their capabilities cannot be dismantled quickly,” he explained. This networked approach enables continuous offensive operations, even amid sustained bombardments.

Political analyst Reza Talebi emphasized that Iran’s leadership cannot be simplistically viewed as vulnerable. “Ideological commitments within the military and security apparatus are deeply intertwined with the system’s survival,” he said. Furthermore, Talebi highlighted that the IRGC extends beyond mere military functions, exerting control over economic and ideological networks that span the broader Middle East region. These structures include the Quds Force, a specialized unit of the IRGC, and affiliated militant groups aligned with Iran’s strategic goals.