How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict
How Depleted Weapon Stocks Could Influence the Iran Conflict
President Donald Trump has asserted that the United States maintains “nearly boundless stockpiles” of critical munitions. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry insists its nation is equipped to endure prolonged resistance, surpassing initial American expectations. While weapon reserves alone may not dictate the conflict’s outcome—Ukraine has frequently been outnumbered and outgunned by Russia—these resources remain a pivotal element.
The war has escalated quickly, with both parties consuming arms at a pace exceeding production. According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the U.S. and Israel have executed over 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple projectiles. Iran, in turn, has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, though many have been intercepted. As the conflict drags on, sustaining this intensity will grow increasingly challenging for both sides.
“Missile launches have decreased by 86% since the war began,” reported Gen. Dan Caine, America’s top commander. Centcom noted a 23% drop in the past 24 hours.
Before the war, estimates suggested Iran had more than 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. However, the rate of missile deployment has slowed dramatically, with Iran now firing dozens instead of hundreds daily. This shift may signal a strategic effort to conserve supplies, though maintaining production will become harder.
Iran’s drone output, once tens of thousands per month, has also declined. The country’s Shahed drones were exported to Russia, which has used them effectively in Ukraine. Even the U.S. has adapted the design, but Caine observed a 73% reduction in Iranian drone attacks since the conflict started. This decline suggests Iran is struggling to keep up with the war’s demands.
Strategic Adjustments and Air Superiority
US and Israeli aircraft now dominate Iranian airspace, with most of its air defenses destroyed. The nation’s air force has been severely weakened, limiting its ability to retaliate. The next phase of the war targets Iran’s missile and drone launch sites, as well as its production facilities. This focus could gradually erode Iran’s capacity to fight, though complete destruction of its stockpiles remains difficult.
Iran spans an area three times that of France, allowing it to conceal weapons from aerial detection. Past conflicts, such as Israel’s three-year campaign against Hamas and the US’s year-long strikes on Yemen, demonstrate that airpower alone cannot eliminate all combat capabilities. Despite its dominance, the US still relies heavily on costly precision-guided weapons, which are produced in limited quantities.
“After the initial long-range strikes, the US can now deploy less expensive missiles and bombs,” said Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Washington-based CSIS. He added that the US might sustain this level of operations “for an extended period.”
With the war’s early phase behind them, US forces have shifted to “stand-in” weapons like JDAM bombs, which are cheaper and simpler to use. While the US has tens of thousands of these, air defense systems are scarcer. In the initial stages, such systems were crucial for countering Iranian retaliatory strikes, but their availability is now a limiting factor.
